The wisdom in crowd sourced weather forecasts

Type/nr A08/22
Skrevet av Michael Morreau, Keita Abe and Margrethe Aanesen
Weather forecasts were elicited from a representative sample of citizens living in Bergen, Norway. The elicited forecasts exhibit wisdom of the crowd: averages of forecasts by individuals have a greater forecast skill than, on average, these individual forecasts. The forecast skill of the aggregate forecasts compares favorably with that of forecasts published by the Norwegian Meteorological Institute and the Norwegian Broadcasting Corporation (NRK). The individual forecasts do not appear to be copied from the published forecasts nor do they seem to be mere statements of base rates for the relevant kinds of weather.
Språk Skrevet på engelsk