Late careers and career exits in Norway

We used matched employer-employee data for the period 1992-1997 to analyse the transition from work to early retirement in Norway. We focus on the effect of a new early retirement scheme ("AFP") of which some 60 percent of the population is eligible. We thus observe individuals in two different incentive systems and estimate the reallocation effect between employment and different early retirement, notably AFP and disability pension. There is a substantial drop in employment for the group entitled to AFP. However, while AFP has an increasingly negative effect on the labour supply, there seem to be almost no corresponding reduction in the incidence of disability pension during the period of investigation.
Our data includes a broad range of individual, workplace and industry characteristics. We report a relatively high degree of heterogeneity in the retirement behaviour, notably between genders, but also between industries and sectors. Push as well as pull factors are identified. The former appears to be more relevant for the disability pathway, while the latter turns out to be significant when retiring to AFP.