Climate, Competition and the Management of Shared Fish Stocks

Long-term climate regime shifts have profound impacts on ocean temperature and circulation patterns, and on the dynamics of fish populations. Climate regime shifts can disrupt otherwise satisfactory international management agreements. Game theory provides a perspective on the difficulty of maintaining cooperative management of shared fishery resources in the face of environmental changes. This paper draws upon two case studies -- Pacific salmon and Norwegian spring-spawning herring -- to demonstrate that a climate regime shift can alter the distribution and productivity of fish stocks in ways that change the comparative advantages of the competing fleets. If the fishery agreement is not sufficiently flexible to adjust to the changed opportunities and incentives, it will likely break down.