Climate Change and its Effect on the Norwegian Mackerel Fishery

The background for the paper is the expected climate change and its effect on the Norwegian mackerel fishing industry. Global warming is expected to affect the ecosystem in the Northeast Atlantic. Considerable uncertainty surrounds the prediction of how the NEA mackerel stock will be affected by the climate change. However, qualitative predictions indicate that the NEA mackerel stock will move further north into the northern North Sea, the Norwegian Sea and into the southern Barents Sea. Norway has 31% of the TAC, and shares the NEA mackerel with Faeroe Island and the EU. Climate induced changes in the ecosystem can change the migration pattern and spawning areas, and therefore change the TAC and how it is distributed between countries. Norway exports mackerel products for about 2.5 billion Norwegian kroner per year. The paper shows that changes in gross revenue due to changes in TAC are about three times higher in the infinitely elastic demand case compared with an elastic demand. If the Norwegian TAC increases by 20 %, the gross revenue increases by 25-30 million Norwegian kroner per year in the elastic case and about 120 million Norwegian kroner if the demand is infinitely elastic.