Map XW

Winners and losers in the climate casino: Arctic marine resources under climate change

The main purpose of the project is to study climate change effects in various fisheries in Arctic and sub-Arctic waters. Among the fisheries we study are cod fisheries in both the Barents and Bering Seas, pelagic fisheries for herring and mackerel in the Nordic Seas, and crab fisheries in various places in the region. The fisheries are analyzed within a common, theoretic framework and we track main impacts of climate change through the natural and societal parts of the seas and the economic activities they support. Our interdisciplinary and comparative perspective builds on experiences from our case studies to identify common and case-specific challenges. Our results will increase the understanding of climate-related challenges for Arctic marine resources and support integrated ocean management.

The research project utilizes an extensive data material and builds upon several recent and on-going initiatives in Norway and abroad. The focus is especially on biological and economic productivity changes, resilience of ocean resource management systems, and international governance.

The project will contribute to the research front with regard to the interdisciplinary understanding of Arctic marine environments and fisheries. A key moment is a close and continuous collaboration between researchers from different disciplines who share a common perception the issues at hand. Further, the project relates to the UN Sustainable Development Goal 14 on life in the ocean, contributes to the ongoing UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development, and aligns with Norwegian policy objectives regarding integrated ocean management.

See the project's entry in the Project Bank of The Research Council of Norway:
prosjektbanken.forskningsradet.no/en/project/FORISS/325665

Publications:

  • Kjesbu, O.S., Alix, M., Sandø, A.B., Strand, E., Wright, P.J., Johns, D.G., Thorsen, A., Marshall, C.T., Bakkeplass, K.G., Vikebø, F.B., Myksvoll, M.S., Ottersen, G, Allan, B.J.M, Fossheim, M., Stiansen, J.E., Huse, G., Sundby, S. (2023). Latitudinally distinct stocks of Atlantic cod face fundamentally different biophysical challenges under on-going climate change. Fish and Fisheries 24(2), 297-320.
  • Myksvoll, M.S., Sandø, A.B., Tjiputra, J., Samuelsen, A., Yumruktepe, V.C., Li, C., Mousing, E.A., Bettencourt, J.H., Ottersen, G. (2023). Key physical processes and their model representation for projecting climate impacts on subarctic Atlantic net primary production: A synthesis. Progress in Oceanography 217.
  • Falconer, L., Ytteborg, E., Goris, N., Lauvset, S.K., Sandø, A.B., Hjøllo, S.S. (2023). Context matters when using climate model projections for aquaculture. Frontiers in Marine Science 10, 1-19.
  • Hoel, A.H. (2023). Sea, fish, and resource management in the High North. In Norway's Arctic Policy: Geopolitics, Security and Identity in the High North (ed: A. Østhagen), pp. 65-76, Edward Elgar Publishing. 
  • Ni, Y., Sandal, L.K., Kvamsdal, S.F., Hansen, C. (2023). Using feedforward neural networks to represent ecosystem dynamics for bioeconomic analysis. Marine Ecology Progress Series 716, 1-15.
  • Ni, Y., Sandal, L.K., Kvamsdal, S.F. (2023). Greed is good: heuristic adaptations for resilience in renewable resource management. Natural Resource Modeling 36(2), e12367 (doi: 10.1111/nrm.12367).
  • Kvamsdal, S.F. (2023). An exploratory analysis of warming effects on wealth in the Barents Sea fisheries. Economic Analysis and Policy 77, 34-50  (doi: 10.1016/j.eap.2022.10.016).
  • Ottersen, G., Constable, A.J., Hollowed, A.B., Holsman, K.K., Jess, M.T., Muelbert, M.M.C., Skern-Mauritzen, M. (2022). Climate Change Impacts on Polar Marine Ecosystems: Toward Robust Approaches for Managing Risks and Uncertainties. Frontiers in Climate 3, 1-11 (doi: 10.3389/fclim.2021.733755)
  • Ni, Y., Steinshamn, S.I., and Kvamsdal, S.F. (2022). Negative shocks in an age-structured bioeconomic model and how to deal with them. Economic Analysis and Policy 76, 15-30 (doi: 10.1016/j.eap.2022.07.009).  
  • Ottersen, G., Holt, R.E. (2022). Long-term variability in spawning stock age structure influences climate-recruitment link for Barents Sea cod. Fisheries Oceanography 32(1), 91-105.

Reports and other communications:

Lectures, conference & workshop presentations:

  • Wu, X. (2023). From Galapagos to the Costa Rica Thermal Dome: Impact of the hypothetical closures on the tuna fisheries in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. Presentation, Bergen Fisheries Economics Workshop, Bergen, Norway.
  • Stiansen, J.E. (2023). The ecosystem survey in the Barents Sea and its implication on fisheries. Presentation, Bergen Fisheries Economics Workshop, Bergen, Norway.
  • Sandø, A.B. (2023). A method to assess climate impacts on Norwegian fish stocks. Presentation, Bergen Fisheries Economics Workshop, Bergen, Norway.
  • Wu, X. (2023). Heterogeneous short-run vessel response to large-scale spatial restrictions on ocean fishing. Presentation, NAERE-conference, Helsinki, Finland.
  • Wu, X. (2023). Testing the spatial dynamic model of commercial fishing trip decision-making. Presentation, EAERE 2023 Annual Conference, Limassol, Cyprus.
  • Wu, X. (2023). Heterogeneous short-run vessel response to large-scale spatial restrictions on ocean fishing. Presentation, BESTEMT workshop, Bergen, Norway.
  • Wu, X. (2023). Heterogeneous short-run vessel response to large-scale spatial restrictions on ocean fishing. Presentation, AERE 2023 Summer Conference, Portland, Maine.
  • Wu, X. (2023). Testing the spatial dynamic model of commercial fishing trip decision-making. Presentation, NAAFE Forum 2023, Woods Hole, MA.
  • Wu, X. (2023). Modelling ecosystem service conflicts in China’s lake Poyang. Presentation, ENE-lunch, Norwegian School of Economics, Bergen, Norway.
  • Ottersen, G. (2022). Observed and projected climate change in Nordic marine areas and impacts on important fish stocks. Presentation, Bergen Fisheries Economics Workshop, Bergen, Norway.
  • Wu, X. (2022). Spatial-dynamic model of commercial fishing trip decision-making. Presentation, PICES/ICES 2022 international symposium on “Small Pelagic Fish: New Frontiers in Science for Sustainable Management”, Lisbon, Portugal.
  • Ekerhovd, N.A. (2022). Excess Capacity and Productivity Decline in an Evolving Rights Based Fishery: The Norwegian Purse Seine Fishery. Presentation, IIFET conference 2022, Vigo, Spain.